Fat or Fuel?

In some cases the above title is a tautology of course.  But here we are going to do a small mea culpa.

In this blog I discussed the recent news that the USA was experiencing a bumper crop in corn this season, and how this is then fed to cattle in feed lots, and then people eat this meat, which has a higher fat content, and then we all get fatter.  Further that the cattle feed lots are a dastardly environment for the cattle in any event.  Bad for people, bad for the environment, and bad for sustainability.

Well all true, but less so than I thought.

Bloomberg has published a very interesting chart that suggests a couple of interesting things for Peak Food and Peak Oil. (And thanks for bringing it to my attention)

The heading is that ethanol is now eating more corn than cows in the USA.  It then goes on to suggest that this is because herd numbers have dropped.  The chart shows that corn for cattle vs ethanol is now negative apparently for the first time with the share of the corn crop used for ethanol at 40%;  (note other uses would be for feed lots, direct consumption and building future capacity).

Apparently farmers are turning to cheaper sources of feed (oh no!!) because of the price of corn (which has now dropped from all time highs); at the same time that fuel consumption is rising, and oil prices are not falling (for the first time ever in a recession).  It is also occurring as the price of meat is at an all time high (futures on feeder cattle).  So maybe feed lots are selling into this boom and thus reducing herd numbers.

Interestingly I was speaking to a farmer a couple of weeks ago, and then a stock agent, and they believed that high cattle prices are here to stay based on international demand and limited resources for production. 

Does this confirm the issues raised in Peak Food, Peak Oil, and indeed Bumper Corn Crop?  The competition for food from the fuel industry; the unsustainability of feed lots; the hunt for water and the hunt for ever more unsustainable ways to meet resource depletion covered in many of these blogs.

I think it does.  My blog on everybody getting fatter from the bumper corn crop this year is directionally wrong, however give me some license on the fact that the corn is actually going into ethanol rather than feed.  I can feel a blog on ethanol versus fuel for carbon purposes coming on.